Section II: Market Area Analysis for Douglas County Commercial Sector

• Some basic questions addressed in a community's market area analysis are:
  
  
  1. What goods and services are being offered locally?
  2. What is the sales potential?
  3. How much of the potential is actually being captured?
  4. How can sales be increased?
  
  
• Nominal taxable sales in Douglas County increased from $235.3 million in 1987 to $411.0 million in 1997.
• Real taxable sales, taxable sales adjusted for inflation, in Douglas County increased from $283.2 million in 1987 to $368.4 million in 1997 or a 30 percent increase from 1987 to 1997.
• Per capita real taxable sales in Douglas County decreased by 17.6 percent from 1987 to 1997. During the same time period Carson City per capita and taxable sales increased by 7.3 percent.
• Douglas County per capita real taxable sales were greater than similar values for Carson City from 1987 to 1990. Since 1990, Carson City real per capita taxable sales have been greater than Douglas County values and by 1997 real per capita taxable sales in Carson City were approximately 25 percent greater than real per capita taxable sales in Douglas County.
• An analytical procedure to estimate commercial sector activity for a county or community is the pull factor.
• Pull factors can be used to evaluate the commercial sector activity through time for a given county or to make cross-county comparisons of a countys commercial sector.
• What does the pull factor tell us? If the pull factor is greater than one, then the county is attracting consumers from outside its countys boundaries. However, if the pull factor is less than one, then the county is not capturing the commercial sector purchases of its residents. When the pull factor is less than 1.0, the county is said to have commercial sector leakages.
• Douglas County pull factor values have declined from 0.95 in 1987 to 0.75 in 1997. Therefore in 1997, Douglas County is currently losing approximately 25 percent of potential taxable sales.
• All but one of Douglas County retail sectors was losing taxable sales. Only the Eating and Drinking Sector of the retail sectors had a pull factor greater than one which indicates capture of sales from outside its boundaries. The pull factor value for the Eating and Drinking Sector may be due to its relationship to the local tourism industry.
• Additional analytical procedures to estimate local commercial sector activity and import substitution possibilities are location quotients and population-employment ratios.
• Location quotient is the ratio of the share of local employment in a particular sector to the share of national employment in that sector.
• For import substitution targeting, location quotient values less than 1.0 signify potential expansion or development in the given sector.
• When comparing location quotient values of Douglas County to values in Churchill, Carson City and Lyon Counties, Douglas County commercial sectors with low location quotient values and therefore potential commercial sector targets are department stores; new and used automobile stores; gasoline service station and other automobile supply stores; apparel and accessory stores; miscellaneous retail stores; personal services; personnel supply services; computer programming; data processing and other related services; home health care services; and residential personal care.
• Population-employment ratio is calculated by dividing a countys population by the employment in a selected commercial sector.
• Population-employment ratios are used for inter-county comparisons.
• A relatively high population-employment ratio indicates that each employee in the given commercial sector serves more people than average which implies a potential to expand.
• When comparing population-employment ratio of Douglas County to values in Churchill, Carson City and Lyon Counties, commercial sectors for potential expansion, development or relocation in Douglas County are department stores; new and used car dealers; gasoline service stations and other automobile supply stores; personal supply stores; amusement and recreation services; home health care services; child day care services; and residential personal care.

Table 1. Douglas County Nominal and Real Taxable Sales, 1987-1997.

*Real taxable sales derived using implicit price deflator where 1992 = 100.0

Figure 1. Douglas County Real Taxable Sales, 1987 1997

Table 2. Per Capita Real Taxable Sales for Carson City, Churchill, Douglas and Lyon Counties, 1987 1997

Figure 2. Per Capita Real Taxable Sales for Carson City, Churchill, Douglas and Lyon Counties, 1987-1997.

Table 3. Overall Pull Factor in Douglas County, 1987 - 1997

Figure 3. Overall Pull Factor for Douglas County, 1987-1997.

Table 4. Douglas County, Nevada Taxable Sales and Pull Factors